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Maryland Democrats have drawn themselves few opportunities to expand their supermajority in the Maryland State Senate, but of the few there are, District 33 is their best bet at doing so. This is an open district with most of the Broadneck Peninsula, Crofton, and now Odenton (which was previously in Districts 21 and 32) as well as swaths of rural areas.
Incumbent Republican Edward Reilly opted out of re-election after serving three terms in the chamber. Under the old lines, he was left uncontested in 2010 and 2014, and won by 7.03% in 2018. Reilly was a strong incumbent: he outran Trump’s 2020 margins in his district in every precinct, usually by double digits, which led him to overperform Trump by 20.78%. Under the old lines, Biden won the district by 13.29%, but under the new ones it went to him by 18.70%, a whopping 5.41% swing. With the loss of incumbency and the new lines being more favorable to Democrats, this will be a tough hold for Republicans.
Under the new lines, the Republican candidates for State Senate in 2018 overperformed Trump’s margin in the district by a total of 18.52%. Odenton sticks out like a sore thumb here, where Democrats outran Biden in the area.
When it comes to the areas that were in the old District 33 that Democrats may run noticeably stronger in this go around, two come to mind: Crofton, where Reilly hailed from, and Severna Park, where attorney Dawn Gile, the Democratic nominee, resides. Two-term State Representative Sid Saab, the Republican nominee, hails from the Crofton area just like Reilly does, but further away in a less populated neighborhood.
This race is going to be highly competitive given the lack of incumbency and the new parts of the district picked up in redistricting making it a tougher hold for the Republicans, but with the Republican-favorable environment right now, CNalysis has had this as a Tilt Republican race for a while but that rating is subject to change as we continue to update our state legislative forecasts this month.