With the 2022 midterms soon upon us, the forecasts for this election at CNalysis are beginning to heat up. After over a year’s worth of work keeping up with redistricting, polls, candidacy filings, campaign finance reports, on-the-ground contacts, and perfecting our data analysis, we feel quite confident about our forecasts for this year’s state legislative elections. For context, CNalysis predicted 95.1% of the state legislative ratings nationwide correctly in 2020, while missing 8 state legislative chambers. We’re counting on outperforming our 2020 numbers after retracing our steps on our misses, becoming more discerning, and fine-tuning the way we meticulously rate each individual state legislative district.
This year, CNalysis is casting ratings for 5,506 state legislative districts across the country. All of these districts are in single-member-district-only state legislative chambers. Given the intricacies of chambers with multi-member-districts, there is no uniform way to create forecasts for them in the way that we forecast chambers that only have single-member districts. Of these 5,506 districts, 1,937 are uncontested this year, 2,301 are in our uncompetitive Solid category, and 1,268 are rated as competitive.
In our national seat gain tracker on our state legislative forecast homepage (which only looks at the projected net change in single-member-district-only chambers), we have Republicans averaging a net gain of 113 seats in State Houses/Assemblies and 45 seats in State Senates for a total of 158 seats. Taking into account the remaining state legislative seats in the multi-member-district chambers of the Maryland House, New Hampshire House, Arizona House, South Dakota House, North Dakota House, Vermont House, and Vermont Senate, we can expect the average net gain in state legislative seats this year for the Republicans to be closer to 200 overall.
In 2020, Republicans enjoyed a net gain of 137 state legislative seats overall, mostly due to Democrats’ lackluster performance in rural areas while failing to make up lost ground in the suburbs. That same year they flipped the New Hampshire House and New Hampshire Senate. This year, Republicans are still favored to whittle down Democrats in the little rural territory they still hold while making modest gains in the suburbs. Republicans are slight favorites to flip the Minnesota House and are modest favorites to flip the Alaska House (we’ll get back to that last one in a little bit). Here is our overview of each state’s legislative races in alphabetical order. We would like to note that Virginia, New Jersey, Mississippi and Louisiana do not have state legislative elections this year, but will in 2023.
Alabama
| House Outcome Range | 74-31 GOP | 79-26 GOP |
| Senate Outcome Range | 26-9 GOP | 28-7 GOP |
| House Rating Totals | 28 DEM Favored | 77 GOP Favored |
| Senate Rating Totals | 8 DEM Favored | 27 GOP Favored |
In the most racially gerrymandered state in the country, there’s nothing exciting in the Alabama legislature this year. The projected composition of each chamber is expected to remain the same as is, with Republicans favored in 77 seats in the State House and 27 in the State Senate.
What to watch
HD-85 is the race to watch here this year, as incumbent Democrat Dexter Grimsley fights to hold his Trump +15 district in southeast Alabama. We have this district as a Tilt Republican pickup– it’d be surprising to see Grimsley hold on in his rightward-trending district, but we won’t be ruling it out.
Alaska
| House Outcome Range | 27-13 Current Coalition | 30-10 GOP |
| Senate Outcome Range | 10-10 TIE | 16-4 GOP |
| House Rating Totals | 19 Current Coalition Favored | 21 GOP Favored |
| Senate Rating Totals | 7 DEM Favored | 13 GOP (+1 D who caucus with GOP) Favored |
Alaska’s state politics are perhaps the most vexing in the entire country, electorally speaking. Those familiar with the oddity that is Alaskan politics wouldn’t be surprised that a Democrat now represents the state in the US House and is expected to continue to do so after this midterm. The Alaska House is controlled by a majority coalition of Democrats, Independents and a few Republicans. Our forecast expects this to change, but it is worth noting that this only takes into account the current Republicans who caucus with the majority coalition into account. We won’t actually know who controls either chamber of the Alaska legislature until the dust has settled and members of the legislature decide who they caucus with. Fun, right?
The House is obviously the more interesting chamber: It’s Lean Republican in our forecast while the Senate is rated as Solid Republican. Anchorage features the most competitive races; four seats rated as Tilt Democratic, one as Lean Independent (this Independent is in the majority coalition) and one as Lean Republican. If Republicans manage to beat our expectations in Anchorage, they’ll be at least one step closer to forming a regular majority coalition.
What to watch
The House also features interesting races outside of Anchorage, particularly in southeast Alaska with Districts 1 and 2, which are rated as Very Likely Independent and Likely Independent. District 1, despite being a Trump +17 seat, is overwhelmingly expected to re-elect its Independent incumbent, Daniel Ortiz. District 2 is an open seat that will be slightly harder for Democrats to hold despite voting for Biden by 6 points.
The State Senate is a similar story to the State House, where most competition will play out in Anchorage. The most high-profile race here, though, is District H where Republican Senator Mia Costello is in the fight of her life against State Representative Matt Claman, who we have as a slight favorite to win. The Fairbanks region features a highly competitive race in District P, where incumbent Democrat Scott Kawasaki is in a tight re-election bid in a Trump +12 district.
Arizona
| Senate Outcome Range | 19-11 DEM | 20-10 GOP |
| Senate Rating Totals | 13 DEM Favored | 17 GOP Favored |
While we do not forecast multi-member-district chambers, we are expecting Republicans to net seats in the Arizona House this year thanks to redistricting. In the State Senate, Republicans are modest favorites to hold their majority, with a Lean R rating for the chamber, though they’re still favored to net a seat or two here.
What to watch
The most interesting race in the Senate is SD-22, where a write-in-free-for-all will take place after the incumbent Democrat opted out of re-election after it was too late for him to be replaced on the ballot. We believe an organized effort by the Democrats here for write-in candidate Eva Diaz will help them hold this Biden +35 district, but we aren’t ruling out a Republican upset given our Tilt Democratic rating for the seat.
Arkansas
| House Outcome Range | 75-25 GOP | 87-13 GOP |
| Senate Outcome Range | 29-6 GOP | 30-5 GOP |
| House Rating Totals | 17 DEM Favored | 83 GOP Favored |
| Senate Rating Totals | 6 DEM Favored | 29 GOP Favored |
Expect Republicans to have a small net gain in seats in the State House this year and a net gain of one seat in the State Senate. The seat in the State Senate that Republicans will gain comes from a recruitment failure back in 2018 to get a Republican to run against an incumbent Democrat who represented a Trump +54 district.
What to watch
In the State House, the expected Republican net gain will mainly be from districts with a sizable Black population, two of which lie on the Mississippi and the other in southwestern Arkansas. This is District 98, where incumbent Democrat David Fielding will struggle to win his district which went to Trump by 10 points.
California
| House Outcome Range | 69-11 DEM | 53-27 DEM |
| Senate Outcome Range | 35-5 DEM | 29-11 DEM |
| House Rating Totals | 61 DEM Favored | 19 GOP Favored |
| Senate Rating Totals | 31 DEM Favored | 9 GOP Favored |
California is one the few states this year where Democrats are expected to net state legislative seats, mainly due to the new maps which have made it harder for Republicans to break the Democratic supermajorities. Democrats are expected to net 1 more seat in the State Assembly, while the composition of the State Senate is expected to remain the same. We credit this in part to Republicans getting locked out of a Trump +5 State Senate seat in the jungle primary.
What to watch
AD-40 is the most interesting race here simply because we wouldn’t be surprised if we got this one wrong. This is a Lean Democratic seat with a Republican incumbent who flipped this seat in 2020 after Democrats got locked out of this seat in the jungle primary.
Colorado
| House Outcome Range | 46-19 DEM | 45-20 GOP |
| Senate Outcome Range | 24-11 DEM | 20-15 GOP |
| House Rating Totals | 37 DEM Favored | 28 GOP Favored |
| Senate Rating Totals | 20 DEM Favored | 15 GOP Favored |
Both chambers in Colorado are competitive this year, with the Colorado House earning a Lean Democratic rating and the Colorado Senate with a Likely Democratic rating, respectively. The House is more competitive than the Senate this year due to a Republican in the Senate switching parties a few months ago becoming a Democrat, and he’s not up for re-election until 2024. If Republicans manage to win a few seats that are in our Tilt Democratic column, they’ll be able to flip the Colorado House, though we’re skeptical of this, especially as incumbent Democratic Governor Jared Polis looks poised to win re-election easily.
What to watch
The most interesting seat in Colorado is HD-61, an open seat in the Denver Suburbs that went to Biden by 11 points and is now reading as a Tilt Republican rating. This is a newly created district that will be a test of Republican downballot strength versus partisanship.
Connecticut
| House Outcome Range | 120-31 DEM | 92-59 GOP |
| Senate Outcome Range | 33-3 DEM | 26-10 GOP |
| House Rating Totals | 91 DEM Favored | 60 GOP Favored |
| Senate Rating Totals | 23 DEM Favored | 13 GOP Favored |
Connecticut Democrats seem eternally locked in a battle for their state legislative chambers despite being reliably blue statewide. Republicans have tremendous downballot strength and are able to win legislative districts that went to Biden by over 20 points. There’s a decent chance that Democrats could create supermajorities in both chambers this year, a consequence of Republicans experiencing several retirements in the legislature. Still, we think the most likely scenario is that Republicans will have a small net gain in both chambers.
What to watch
The most interesting seat is SD-20, an open Biden +22 seat in eastern Connecticut where 2020 Democratic nominee Martha Marx is running to flip the seat. We think she’s a slight favorite to do so now that the Republican incumbent is not running for re-election.
Delaware
| House Outcome Range | 28-13 DEM | 21-20 DEM |
| Senate Outcome Range | 15-6 DEM | 11-10 DEM |
| House Rating Totals | 25 DEM Favored | 16 GOP Favored |
| Senate Rating Totals | 15 DEM Favored | 6 GOP Favored |
Our forecasts expect Democrats to retain supermajorities in each state legislative chamber in Delaware, with little turnover in either chamber.
What to watch
The most interesting race is in the State Senate as Democrats try to flip SD-6, an open district in Southeastern Delaware, and we see them as slight favorites to do so. This would echo a similar situation from 2020, where Republicans had a great result in state legislatures nationwide, all the while Democrats were busy creating a supermajority in the Delaware Senate.
Florida
| House Outcome Range | 68-52 GOP | 93-27 GOP |
| Senate Outcome Range | 23-17 GOP | 29-11 GOP |
| House Rating Totals | 39 DEM Favored | 81 GOP Favored |
| Senate Rating Totals | 14 DEM Favored | 26 GOP Favored |
Republicans will win Florida this year, but you didn’t need us to tell you that. Neither chamber is competitive and the race for US Senate and Governor are even less so, no matter what the sacrificial lambs of Charlie Christ and Val Demings want you to believe. The more interesting question is the tight fight for Republican supermajorities in both chambers: we have Republicans as slight favorites to win a supermajority in the State House and are slight underdogs to win a supermajority in the State Senate.
What to watch
The most interesting races this year are in the Orlando area in the State House, with a plethora of districts that went to Joe Biden by single digits, some of which are open seats. There are four races here we have as Tilt Republican, one as Lean Republican and two as Lean Democratic.
Georgia
| House Outcome Range | 91-89 DEM | 115-65 GOP |
| Senate Outcome Range | 32-24 GOP | 36-20 GOP |
| House Rating Totals | 78 DEM Favored | 102 GOP Favored |
| Senate Rating Totals | 23 DEM Favored | 336 GOP Favored |
Thanks to gerrymandering, neither chamber in Georgia is competitive this year despite the state going to Joe Biden in 2020 – Republicans will, indubitably, retain their majorities. Democrats will have to defend a lot of seats in the northern Atlanta suburbs that have trended their way but may experience a temporary reversion to the Republicans in a red-wave year, especially with Republican Governor Brian Kemp expected to outrun Republican US Senate nominee Hershel Walker by several points.
What to watch
One particular seat in the northern Atlanta suburbs that Democrats will struggle to win is SD-7, where a divisive Democratic primary may result in Republicans winning a Biden +17 seat. We see Democratic nominee Nabilah Islam as a slight favorite to win this seat, but only slight.
Hawaii
| House Outcome Range | 50-1 DEM | 37-14 DEM |
| Senate Outcome Range | 24-1 DEM | 19-6 DEM |
| House Rating Totals | 46 DEM Favored | 5 GOP Favored |
| Senate Rating Totals | 24 DEM Favored | 1 GOP Favored |
Republicans are expected to net a seat or two in the Hawaii House this year, with a very small chance of a Republican net gain in the State Senate. The western part of Oahu is home to several high-profile competitive races, including three Tilt Democratic districts, one Tilt Republican district and one Lean Republican district. A large enough red wave could lead to a brick red slate of Republican seats in the State House on this part of the state’s largest island.
What to watch
The aforementioned Tilt Republican district here is HD-41, where incumbent Democrat Matt LoPresti will struggle to win his Biden +5 district, especially within the new territory he has to cover. We would consider it a slight upset if he won this bid at re-election.
Idaho
| House Outcome Range | 54-16 GOP | 64-6 GOP |
| Senate Outcome Range | 27-8 GOP | 32-3 GOP |
| House Rating Totals | 9 DEM Favored | 61 GOP Favored |
| Senate Rating Totals | 4 DEM Favored | 31 GOP Favored |
Democrats will struggle to maintain their already-diminishing presence in each state legislative chamber this year, as we have Republicans favored to net two seats in both the Idaho House and Idaho Senate.
What to watch
The most interesting race here is SD-6 in the Panhandle, where incumbent Democrat David Nelson is a slight underdog in his re-election bid in his Trump +5 State Senate district.
Illinois
| House Outcome Range | 88-30 DEM | 68-50 GOP |
| Senate Outcome Range | 44-15 DEM | 35-24 GOP |
| House Rating Totals | 74 DEM Favored | 44 GOP Favored |
| Senate Rating Totals | 38 DEM Favored | 21 GOP Favored |
While our forecasts show a small chance of a Republican majority in both state legislative chambers in Illinois, we can still expect Democrats to hold both of their supermajorities thanks to the skillful gerrymanders they’ve put in place this decade. However, their supermajority in the State House is on less stable ground than their supermajority in the State Senate. Republicans are expected to net a few seats in both chambers this year.
What to watch
The most intriguing race this year is the open SD-36 in Western Illinois, a Biden +8 seat where Rock Island mayor Mike Thoms (R) will square off with State Representative Michael Halpin (D). Both of these candidates are known and noted electoral overperformers, but we see Mayor Thoms as a slight favorite ahead of election day.
Indiana
| House Outcome Range | 63-37 GOP | 81-19 GOP |
| Senate Outcome Range | 37-13 GOP | 42-8 GOP |
| House Rating Totals | 28 DEM Favored | 72 GOP Favored |
| Senate Rating Totals | 10 DEM Favored | 40 GOP Favored |
The modest Republican gerrymander in Indiana has allowed little room for Democrats to augment their standing in either chamber this decade, and the red wave environment will likely grant Republicans a small net gain in both chambers. The most interesting race here is HD-43 in Terre Haute, where incumbent Democrat Tonya Pfaff is a moderate favorite to win re-election despite representing a Trump +4 district.
Iowa
| House Outcome Range | 51-49 GOP | 77-23 GOP |
| Senate Outcome Range | 30-20 GOP | 37-13 GOP |
| House Rating Totals | 32 DEM Favored | 68 GOP Favored |
| Senate Rating Totals | 15 DEM Favored | 35 GOP Favored |
Redistricting was not kind to Democrats in Iowa, thanks to Republicans in the legislature rejecting the independent redistricting commission’s first set of maps which tried to avoid screwing Democrats over in the legislature. As a result, Republicans are favored to have a net gain in both chambers with roughly 5 seats in the House and 2 in the Senate. Democrats are expected to lose seats all around the state, both suburban and rural. Republicans may be able to create a supermajority in the State House if the night goes well enough for them, and they’re expected to hold their supermajority in the State Senate.
What to watch
The most interesting race is HD-99 in southeastern Iowa, where incumbent Democrat Dennis Cohoon is a slight underdog to win re-election in his Trump +3 seat.
Kansas
| House Outcome Range | 75-50 GOP | 102-23 GOP |
| House Rating Totals | 33 DEM Favored | 92 GOP Favored |
The Kansas Senate is not up until 2024, but the State House is due for some changes. Republicans are overwhelmingly favored to hold and expand their supermajority in the chamber. This is not only because of the expected red wave but also the new maps favoring Republicans.
What to watch
The most interesting race here is HD-102 in Hutchinson, where Jason Probst is a moderate underdog in his re-election bid. We rate his Trump +15 seat as Lean R. Probst is the last of his kind; representing a Republican-leaning small-town as a Democrat in Kansas in the State House. We will likely never see Democrats bounce back from the decline of these types of seats, at least in our lifetime.
Kentucky
| House Outcome Range | 71-29 GOP | 87-13 GOP |
| Senate Outcome Range | 27-11 GOP | 31-7 GOP |
| House Rating Totals | 18 DEM Favored | 82 GOP Favored |
| Senate Rating Totals | 7 DEM Favored | 31 GOP Favored |
To no surprise, Kentucky Republicans will grow their majority in the State House this year. 2016 finally flipped this chamber to the Republicans and 2020 resulted in Democrats finding themselves in an even smaller minority in the chamber. Republicans will also net a seat in the State Senate due to an incumbent Democrat opting out of re-election; Democrats didn’t even get a candidate to try and hold the seat for them.
What to watch
The most interesting races this year are the last two seats in Eastern Kentucky where Democrats have incumbents, HD-94 and HD-95. Incumbent Democrat Angie Hatton of 94, who has not faced an opponent since 2016, is expected to lose re-election as we rate her race Lean Republican. Meanwhile, we have incumbent Democrat Ashley Tackett-Laferty as an overwhelming favorite to win re-election despite representing a Trump +54 district – we rate her race as Very Likely Democratic. If she loses to Republican Brandon Spencer, who has made the euphemism “Let’s Go Brandon!” into his campaign slogan, it will be because of trends toward Republicans in rural areas being even more rapid than we expect.
Maine
| House Outcome Range | 106-45 DEM | 99-52 GOP |
| Senate Outcome Range | 23-12 DEM | 28-7 GOP |
| House Rating Totals | 81 DEM Favored | 70 GOP Favored |
| Senate Rating Totals | 21 DEM Favored | 14 GOP Favored |
Democrats are slight favorites to hold their majorities in both the State House and the State Senate, with the State House rated as Tilt Democratic and the State Senate as Lean Democratic.
We would like to note that while the Maine House has been in Democratic hands since it flipped back into their column in 2012, the chamber is notoriously unpredictable on a district-level due to the large independent streak of Maine voters, a large State House of 151 seats and a plethora of highly competitive districts.
We expect Republicans to improve their standing in both of these chambers by a few seats, but unless incumbent Democratic Governor Janet Mills unexpectedly has a close re-election, Democrats should hold both chambers.
What to watch
The most interesting race is SD-1 in Northern Maine, where incumbent Democrat Troy Dale Jackson is heavily favored to win re-election despite representing a Trump +12 district.
Maryland
| Senate Outcome Range | 35-12 DEM | 29-18 DEM |
| Senate Rating Totals | 32 DEM Favored | 15 GOP Favored |
It’s hard to say who will have a net gain in the Maryland House this year given the presence of multi-member districts. Democrats did draw themselves slightly more favorable maps than the last go-round, but a red wave year may undermine that advantage. In the State Senate, we don’t expect any turnover. If there is, it’s likely to be in favor of Democrats.
What to watch
We profiled the two most competitive races in the State Senate, District 33 and District 30, in early October. They’re the most competitive seats in the chamber and everyone following the Maryland Senate races will be watching them. We’ll be sure to have the popcorn ready.
Massachusetts
| House Outcome Range | 142-18 DEM | 96-44 DEM |
| Senate Outcome Range | 38-2 DEM | 31-9 DEM |
| House Rating Totals | 135 DEM Favored | 25 GOP Favored |
| Senate Rating Totals | 37 DEM Favored | 3 GOP Favored |
Thanks to skillful gerrymandering by the Massachusetts Democrats, we aren’t expecting any turnover in either chamber composition-wise. If there is, it’ll likely be in favor of Democrats rather than Republicans despite a red-wave environment.
What to watch
The most interesting district here is in the State House, where former Republican-turned-Independent Susannah Whipps will be running against a Republican for the first time. In the past, she’s run against Democrats and won handily.
Michigan
| House Outcome Range | 66-44 DEM | 77-33 GOP |
| Senate Outcome Range | 23-15 DEM | 27-11 GOP |
| House Rating Totals | 51 DEM Favored | 59 GOP Favored |
| Senate Rating Totals | 17 DEM Favored | 21 GOP Favored |
Michigan has the pleasure of featuring the most competitive set of state legislative chambers for the 2022 election. The State House is rated as Tilt Republican while the State Senate is a pure Toss-Up, the only Toss-Up state legislative chamber this year. We expect Republicans to slightly grow their majority in the State House while Democrats are expected to gain seats in the State Senate.
What to watch
On the shore of Lake Michigan lies HD-38, a Biden +9 district that simultaneously voted for Republican candidates for the Michigan House in 2020 by 3 points. It’s an open seat this time, which makes it an easier pickup opportunity for Democrats. We have them as slight favorites to win with a Tilt Democratic rating.
Minnesota
| House Outcome Range | 86-48 DEM | 88-46 GOP |
| Senate Outcome Range | 43-24 DEM | 45-22 GOP |
| House Rating Totals | 65 DEM Favored | 69 GOP Favored |
| Senate Rating Totals | 31 DEM Favored | 36 GOP Favored |
Republicans are slight favorites to flip the Minnesota House this year and are marginally better positioned to maintain their majority in the Minnesota Senate. The Twin Cities suburbs will largely decide control of both chambers, but the Iron Range in Northern Minnesota features several highly competitive districts in both the House and Senate, including HD-11A, HD-7B, HD-3A, HD-3B, and SD-3. Democrats currently have 5 seats in the State House in the Iron Range but that number is expected to decrease by at least 2 seats. If Republicans do slightly better in rural areas than we expect, they’ll win all of the Iron Range seats.
What to watch
The biggest battle in the Iron Range will be for State Senate District 3 and the two state house districts nested within it, 3A and 3B. State Senate 3 is an open district this year while 3A and 3B both have Democratic incumbents running in them, one in a Biden +6 district and the other in a Trump +6 district, making the Senate district overall an even one on the presidential level. We have Democrats narrowly favored in all three of these seats with a Tilt Democratic rating in each.
Missouri
| House Outcome Range | 101-62 GOP | 128-35 GOP |
| Senate Outcome Range | 22-12 GOP | 25-9 GOP |
| House Rating Totals | 43 DEM Favored | 120 GOP Favored |
| Senate Rating Totals | 10 DEM Favored | 24 GOP Favored |
Despite getting slightly more favorable maps this decade, Democrats will likely find themselves in an even smaller minority in the State House, though only by a handful of seats.
What to watch
The St. Louis and Kansas City have a plethora of competitive seats this year, as usual. But the Springfield area has been given an additional two seats this decade that will be competitive. As a result, we have four highly competitive seats in the area in our forecast. Democrats surprised us by flipping a district we had as Tilt Republican here in 2020, so watch out for potential upsets.
Montana
| House Outcome Range | 58-42 GOP | 83-17 GOP |
| Senate Outcome Range | 28-22 GOP | 39-11 GOP |
| House Rating Totals | 28 DEM Favored | 72 GOP Favored |
| Senate Rating Totals | 15 DEM Favored | 35 GOP Favored |
You’d think it couldn’t get any worse for Montana Democrats in the state legislature, especially after losing a whopping 9 seats in the State House and a seat in the State Senate in 2020. But this year we have Republicans favored to pick up 5 more seats in the State House and 4 in the State Senate, and there are still seats that Democrats are only narrowly favored in that Republicans could flip if there’s a better night for Montana Republicans than expected.
What to watch
In East Helena, Senate Minority Leader Jill Cohenour (D) has shifted down to a race for HD-84 due to term limits. She’s been a force in Helena politics for 20 years now, but we think she’ll probably be foiled by 18-year-old Kaitlyn Ruch (R) in this Trump +1 district. This was a district we previously had as a Toss-Up and have moved to Tilt Republican in our final forecast, it was a tough race to pick and we wouldn’t be surprised if Ruch lost.
Nebraska
| Senate Outcome Range | 26-23 GOP | 36-13 GOP |
| Senate Rating Totals | 16 DEM Favored | 33 GOP Favored |
Nebraska has a unique system for electing its state legislators. It has only one state legislative chamber and each race is technically nonpartisan, though each of the legislators may as well be marked as “NINOs” – nonpartisans-in-name-only. Republicans have a supermajority in the chamber and are certain to hold that supermajority this year. We don’t expect the needle to move in the chamber this year. All of the races this year that are in our highly competitive “Tilt” column (representing a race where the leader has roughly a 6-in-10 chance of winning) lie on the I-680 corridor: Districts 10, 12, 18 and 20. We have Republicans favored to win 12, 18 and 20, all of which are open seats, while incumbent Democrat Wendy DeBoer is a slight favorite to win re-election in District 10.
What to watch
Outside of the I-680 corridor lies our top pick for the Nebraska legislature this year, District 36. Despite voting for Trump by 22 points, we have this as a Lean Republican race given how this part of Sarpy County has split their tickets for legislative Democrats as recently as 2020. In the adjacent and more suburban District 49, there was an 18 point difference between the result for the legislative race and presidential race in favor of Jen Day (D). We had that race rated as Likely Republican that year and was one of two districts in our Likely Republican column that we got wrong. We still think that Republican nominee Rick Holdcroft is favored to beat Democratic nominee Angie Lauritsen, as we have this race as Lean Republican in our final forecast.
Nevada
| House Outcome Range | 29-13 DEM | 30-12 GOP |
| Senate Outcome Range | 13-8 DEM | 11-10 GOP |
| House Rating Totals | 27 DEM Favored | 15 GOP Favored |
| Senate Rating Totals | 11 DEM Favored | 10 GOP Favored |
Despite our Tilt Republican predictions for the races for Governor and US Senate, our state legislative forecasts for the Nevada Assembly and Nevada Senate show that Democrats are favored to hold their majorities. The Assembly is rated as Lean Democratic and the Senate as Likely Democratic, respectively. This is because of a combination of moderate gerrymandering by Nevada Democrats and the poor geography that Nevada Republicans have.
What to watch
Either party in the Assembly could gain seats, especially with the slew of tight races in Southern Las Vegas, where we have 3 races previously in our Toss-Up column that are now in the Tilt Democratic column. HD-21, 35, and 41 voted for Biden by 7, 5, and 6 points respectively. Each has a Democratic incumbent in them; winning all three is a requirement for a GOP majority in the Assembly.
New Hampshire
| Senate Outcome Range | 12-12 TIE | 19-5 GOP |
| Senate Rating Totals | 9 DEM Favored | 15 GOP Favored |
With incumbent Governor Chris Sununu poised for another landslide re-election, we expect his coattails to once again bear many Republican riders looking to expand their majority in the New Hampshire House. However, given the uncertainty of this multi-member-district chamber and the hyper-local politics from its small district population sizes, there’s probably around a 2-in-10 chance that Democrats could flip the chamber if Sununu fails to meet expectations. The State Senate, meanwhile, is a grossly gerrymandered chamber this decade, where Donald Trump won half of the chamber’s seats in a state that voted for Biden by 7.35%. A New Hampshire Democrat winning a district that Donald Trump won is doable in the New Hampshire House but not the Senate, so the best case scenario for Democrats is a tied Senate chamber.
What to watch
The most interesting district in the Senate is SD-18, where incumbent Democrat Donna Soucy is a slight favorite in her re-election bid mostly thanks to her being the top performing Democrat in the chamber. Her seat is only Biden +5, and this race will be a test on whether personal brands can triumph over both a red wave and polarization.
New Mexico
| House Outcome Range | 51-19 DEM | 39-31 GOP |
| House Rating Totals | 42 DEM Favored | 28 GOP Favored |
Only the New Mexico House is up this year, and despite a competitive race for Governor, the chamber is barely in play. This is due to the new gerrymander Democrats have put in place, where many of their incumbents have been shored up in redistricting. They’re poised to lose seats but likely no more than 5, but a red wave tall enough to flip double-digit Biden districts in Albuquerque could lead to Republicans flipping the chamber.
What to watch
In Southern New Mexico lies District 32, our top pick for the New Mexico House this year. Incumbent Democrat Candie Sweetser, who outran Biden in her old district by 19 points, is running for re-election in her new Trump +10 district. She’s a strong incumbent but we have her as a slight underdog in her re-election bid given the district’s rural makeup and federal partisanship in a year like this.
New York
| House Outcome Range | 117-33 DEM | 75-65 DEM |
| Senate Outcome Range | 54-9 DEM | 34-29 GOP |
| House Rating Totals | 104 DEM Favored | 46 GOP Favored |
| Senate Rating Totals | 44 DEM Favored | 19 GOP Favored |
One of the silver linings from the 2020 election for Democrats on the state legislative level was New York Democrats creating a supermajority in the State Senate. They had hoped to use their supermajorities to sidestep the redistricting commission in order to create Democratic gerrymanders for both the legislature and congressional districts, but the New York Court of Appeals struck down these efforts. Their gerrymander for the Assembly is still in use for this year, but the map in place for the State Senate was drawn in a nonpartisan fashion by special masters.
As such, their supermajorities are at risk. Democrats still have about a 6-in-10 chance of holding their supermajority in the Senate, and a 2-in-3 chance of holding their supermajority in the Assembly. Republicans are expected to net a few seats in the Assembly while either party could gain in the Senate.
What to watch
In upstate New York Rockland County, there are two kingmakers in local politics: the Skverer and Vizhnitzer Rebbes. They’re so important in fact that DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney, who has a tough re-election battle for his seat in the US House this year, had the President call them to get them to endorse Maloney. This is because the Hasidic Jewish communities here bloc vote, producing nearly 100% swings (or in the case of the Skverer Rebbe of New Square, exactly 100%) if they switch their endorsements for a candidate of the opposite party between elections. The Skverer Rebbe can swing nearly 2,000 votes in a race this year alone, which can make or break a race for the state legislature or congress. Skverer Rebbe has endorsed Sean Patrick Maloney but it is not known who he or the Vizhnitzer Rebbe will endorse for either legislative race. It may not be until tomorrow that we find out, in which case we may adjust our ratings for these seats accordingly.
North Carolina
| House Outcome Range | 62-58 DEM | 91-29 GOP |
| Senate Outcome Range | 26-24 GOP | 36-14 GOP |
| House Rating Totals | 48 DEM Favored | 72 GOP Favored |
| Senate Rating Totals | 18 DEM Favored | 32 GOP Favored |
In the 2018 midterms, Democrats managed to break through the Republican supermajorities despite an uphill battle against gerrymandered maps in favor of Republicans. But Republicans got to gerrymander the maps again for 2022 and as a result may be able to create a supermajority in the House and are heavily favored to create a supermajority in the Senate.
What to watch
On the Virginia border lies SD-3, a practically open district that has a Black voting age population of 42%. Republicans haven’t won this seat in nearly 100 years, but we have them as slight favorites to do so in this Biden +4 district.
North Dakota
| Senate Outcome Range | 39-8 GOP | 45-2 GOP |
| Senate Rating Totals | 4 DEM Favored | 43 GOP Favored |
Despite CNalysis not having a forecast for the North Dakota House due to the chamber having multi-member districts, we are confident that Republicans will pick up seats in the State House. These gains will mostly come from districts in Grand Forks and Fargo. In the Senate, we have Republicans favored to flip 3 seats, all of which however are rated as Tilt Republican– expect tight races in most, if not all.
What to watch
One of these Tilt Republican races is SD-35 in Bismarck, where incumbent Senator Tracy Potter (D) is running for re-election. Potter was appointed to this seat earlier in the year but has represented it in the past. We still expect Republicans to flip this seat despite Potter’s previous incumbency status.
Ohio
| House Outcome Range | 54-45 GOP | 79-20 GOP |
| Senate Outcome Range | 23-10 GOP | 27-6 GOP |
| House Rating Totals | 31 DEM Favored | 68 GOP Favored |
| Senate Rating Totals | 8 DEM Favored | 25 GOP Favored |
Despite the Ohio Supreme Court’s best efforts to squeeze fair maps out of the truant Ohio legislature, the maps in place for 2022 are still gerrymandered in favor of Republicans. As a result, Ohio Republicans are projected to grow their supermajority, probably by 3 or 4 seats. There probably won’t be any turnover in the Senate this year, but the range for turnover is 2 seats for either party.
What to watch
Despite this district being traditionally Democratic downballot and voting for Biden by 2 points in 2020, we have Republicans as slight favorites to flip HD-64 in Trumbull County. This district contains Democratic US Senate nominee Tim Ryan’s hometown of Niles, so if the polls for the US Senate race this year are accurate, Democrats can hold this seat. We’re not inclined to believe that polls won’t underestimate Republicans again though due to the egregious polling errors present for the presidential races in 2016 and 2020, as well as the US Senate race in 2018. And as Nate Cohn of the New York Times noted on Twitter, it’s quite possible history’s about to repeat itself this year with Republican-leaning white voters.
Oklahoma
| House Outcome Range | 78-23 GOP | 88-13 GOP |
| Senate Outcome Range | 39-9 GOP | 41-7 GOP |
| House Rating Totals | 16 DEM Favored | 85 GOP Favored |
| Senate Rating Totals | 8 DEM Favored | 40 GOP Favored |
Almost all of the competitive seats in the Oklahoma House this year are held by Democrats due to Republicans shoring up several incumbents in redistricting who previously held competitive districts. Republicans are favored to flip most of these competitive seats in our forecast that are held by Democrats, including districts 45 and 46 in Norman, and 79 in Tulsa.
What to watch
The most intriguing race is in the college town of Stillwater, home to Oklahoma State University. We have incumbent Democrat Trish Ranson as a slight favorite to win re-election, as she outran Biden by 3 points in 2020 and is running in a Biden +1 district. We also believe that the student debt relief the Biden administration has provided will help Democrats in college town districts like these with competitive state legislative races.
In the State Senate, Republicans are nearly certain to pick up at least one seat, SD-34 in Tulsa, held by incumbent Senator J.J. Dossett. Dossett has not faced a Republican opponent since a 2016 low-turnout special election and is likely to lose his Trump +22 district. We’re not saying it’s impossible for him to win, though, as we have this as a Very Likely Republican race.
Oregon
| House Outcome Range | 41-19 DEM | 39-21 GOP |
| Senate Outcome Range | 20-10 DEM | 19-11 GOP |
| House Rating Totals | 35 DEM Favored | 25 GOP Favored |
| Senate Rating Totals | 17 DEM Favored | 13 GOP Favored |
Despite being reliably Democratic on the federal level, there’s a decent chance that Republicans are able to create a trifecta in the Oregon state government this year. We have Christine Drazan (R) as a slight favorite to win the race for Governor this year, and our forecasts have both the Oregon House and Senate as Tilt Democratic. Democrats used their redistricting privileges to draw a moderate gerrymander in both chambers, yet we still have Republicans favored to net seats in each one. The issue for Republican legislative candidates will be matching Drazan’s performance in their races, given that many voters split their tickets in 2018 for the legislative races and the gubernatorial race in favor of Democratic legislative candidates.
Republicans will very likely net a handful seats in the House this year and will probably net at least one seat in the Senate. Actually winning an outright majority in either chamber will require winning seats we have in our Tilt Democratic column.
What to watch
Incumbent Republican Bill Kennemer was redrawn into a blue seat drawn as a pick up opportunity for Democrats. We have him as a slight underdog in his re-election bid this year in the highly competitive SD-20 in Portland, as such we have rated this seat as Tilt Democratic.
Pennsylvania
| House Outcome Range | 112-91 DEM | 141-62 GOP |
| Senate Outcome Range | 25-25 TIE | 36-14 GOP |
| House Rating Totals | 98 DEM Favored | 105 GOP Favored |
| Senate Rating Totals | 21 DEM Favored | 29 GOP Favored |
Despite a likely red wave tomorrow, Democrats are almost certain to gain seats in the Pennsylvania House. This is because both state legislative chambers were egregiously gerrymandered in the 2010s, but perfectly fair lines have been put in place this decade. The change between maps has been so drastic that even if Democrats lost all of the seats in our forecast we have rated as Tilt Democratic and Lean Democratic, they’d still net 1 seat in the chamber (assuming they win all of the seats we have rated as Likely Democratic and stronger) while Republicans hold all of the seats we have them favored in.
In the State Senate, it’s more likely that Republicans gain seats over Democrats. Still, it could go either way. Three races are in our Tilt column: SD-38 in Alleghany County, and SDs 14 and 18 in the Lehigh Valley. We have Democrats as slight favorites to win the Lehigh Valley seats: they have an incumbent in 18 and the Republican nominee in 14 is, quite literally, a political meme; it’s most of what you’ll find when you google Dean Browning. We have Republicans as slight favorites to flip SD-38. Democrats winning the 14th while losing the 38th would mean no net change in the chamber this year, assuming all of our ratings stronger than Tilt hold true. Given the seats that are up this year, the best-case scenario for Democrats is earning a tied Senate chamber where the Lieutenant Governor’s vote is the tiebreaker. The best case for the Republicans, meanwhile, is walking away with a supermajority in the chamber.
What to watch
The top three races in the lower chamber that will be the most interesting to watch are district 72 in Cambria County, 151 in Montgomery County, and 168 in Delaware County.
The story in 151 and 168 is pretty much the same: two Republican incumbents in the Philadelphia suburbs who had close re-elections in 2020 in sapphire-blue districts, only to be drawn in even bluer districts this year with a lot of unfamiliar territory where their incumbency advantages won’t reach to the new constituents they’re trying to represent. We have each of these seats as Tilt Democratic, though it wouldn’t be too surprising if Republicans held on to 151, given that the district shifted 4.79% leftward on the presidential level in redistricting, and 71% of the district’s population was in the Republican incumbent’s previous district. It would be a pretty significant upset if Republicans did manage to hold on to 168, though: the district shifted 9.31% leftward on the presidential level in redistricting, and 52% of the new district is in territory that the Republican incumbent has not represented.
District 72 is not only our pick for the most interesting state legislative district in Pennsylvania this year, but the most interesting in the country. Incumbent Democrat Frank Burns currently represents a mostly rural district in Cambria County that voted for Trump by 44.42%, while Burns won re-election by 5.42%, producing a whopping 50.42% difference between the presidential result and state house result. This makes Burns the 10th strongest Democrat on the state legislative level in 2020, and he’ll certainly rank higher this year: 3 of the Democrats who did better than Burns are West Virginia Delegates who opted out of re-election, another is a State Senator in Eastern Kentucky who lost re-election, and a State Senator in Nebraska who is term-limited in 2024. Burns will likely place in the top 5 this year as a result, regardless of whether he wins re-election or not.
Burns’ electoral strength is just part of the reason why this is my top pick throughout the country. The redistricting situation for Burns has gauged my interest as a psephologist of 5 years and an aspiring political scientist. As previously mentioned, Burns’ district voted for Trump by 44.42% and was mostly rural. The new district he’s seeking to represent voted for Trump by 28.93% and is not as rural as the old district due to Johnstown now being absorbed into it. But there’s more than meets the eye here: despite a 15.49% swing leftward on the presidential level, a Burns loss could be caused by redistricting. Only 40% of the new HD-72’s population are currently represented by Burns, and research shows that in redistricting years, incumbents on the state legislative level do noticeably poorer in areas they have not represented.
53% of the new HD-72’s population comes from precincts that were in the old HD-71, which contained most of Johnstown. Democrats lost HD-71 in the 2018 midterms as the incumbent Democrat lost by 4.28%, and Democrats left it uncontested in 2020, throwing another wrench into trying to predict whether Burns will win re-election. Usually when incumbent Democrats in overwhelmingly red territory lose re-election, the next election produces a much smaller difference between the presidential and state legislative results. On the other hand, Johnstown isn’t deeply Republican: the Democratic nominee for Governor, Attorney General Josh Shapiro, only lost the HD-72 precincts from the old HD-71 by 5% while Shapiro won statewide in his re-election by 4.6%. They had also voted Democratic in the races for Governor and US Senate in 2018.
HD-72 is rated as Lean Democratic in our final forecast. Burns does have a stronger opponent this time compared to 2020, Renae Billow, the granddaughter of a former three-term State Representative from Cambria. But Billow is significantly behind Burns in the money race and her grandfather had a short-lived tenure in the legislature that ended 30 years ago. Even if voters happen to recognize the name, it probably won’t be of much relevancy. Burns was first elected to the House in 2008, so he’s already represented parts of Cambria for longer than his opponent’s grandfather.
Rhode Island
| House Outcome Range | 68-7 DEM | 50-25 DEM |
| Senate Outcome Range | 36-2 DEM | 23-15 DEM |
| House Rating Totals | 64 DEM Favored | 11 GOP Favored |
| Senate Rating Totals | 34 DEM Favored | 4 GOP Favored |
It’s likely that not much will change in Rhode Island’s legislature after this midterm election, even if Allan Fung (R) manages to flip the state’s 2nd Congressional District tomorrow. Democrats will probably have a net loss of 1 seat in the State House, and are likely to net a seat in the State Senate, though Republicans may be able to defy that projection if they can flip the open 22nd district in Johnston we have as Lean Democratic.
What to watch
The townships of Johnston and Smithfield have 5 Democratic incumbents who represent districts that Donald Trump won in 2020. One of these five, Senator Frank Lombardo, was left uncontested this year. The remaining four are in the State House with HDs 42, 43, 44, and 53. 42 and 53 are rated as Tilt Republican pickups, while 44 is rated as a Tilt Democratic hold and 43 as a Likely Democratic hold. Democrats winning districts that voted for Trump in 2020 will be an exceedingly rare phenomenon in this midterm, so keep a close eye out for the potential victors. They’re the shiny Pokemon of this election.
South Carolina
| House Outcome Range | 82-42 GOP | 96-28 GOP |
| House Rating Totals | 37 DEM Favored | 87 GOP Favored |
Despite a successful legal effort to implement a new set of maps for the South Carolina House on the basis that the enacted ones had been racially gerrymandered, the new maps will not go into effect until 2024. As such, the elections for the South Carolina House this year will be held under the racially gerrymandered maps. The State Senate is not up for election until 2024. We have Republicans favored to net 5 State House seats this year, with the most competitive seats lying in the Black Belt and the Charleston suburbs.
What to watch
Democrats in South Carolina used to have a plethora of members in its legislature who were able to win districts composed of majority white conservatives, but 2020 took a sledgehammer to the few stalwarts. Now, there’s just one potential survivor in the State House: State Representative Jackie Hayes of HD-55 on the North Carolina border. Hayes, a retired Hall of Fame high school football coach and seven-time state champion, had his new district drawn to be 9 points further to the right than his old district on the presidential level. Hayes was first elected in 1998 and hasn’t had a Republican run against him since 2006. Despite his popularity as a coach, we have this as a Lean Republican pickup – Democrats in seats like these almost always lose when they finally have an opponent run against them after a long period of time. The new district he’s seeking to represent is becoming more conservative as well, weakening the case for a Hayes re-election.
South Dakota
| Senate Outcome Range | 27-8 GOP | 35-0 GOP |
| Senate Rating Totals | 3 DEM Favored | 32 GOP Favored |
We don’t have a forecast for the South Dakota House due to the multi-member districts in the chamber, but Republicans should be poised to flip at least a seat or two in the lower chamber. Democrats will lose seats in the chamber in any environment other than a blue wave year (think 2008 or 2018).
Control of the South Dakota Senate is already being decided by the Democrats’ failure to file candidates in a majority of districts, which should make it an interesting chamber to watch tomorrow. This is because Republicans have a good chance at winning every single district in the chamber: we have Republicans favored to win 32 seats, and Democrats favored in 3. However, of those 3 seats Democrats are favored in, two are in our Tilt Democratic column and one is in our Lean Democratic column. Even a slight Republican overperformance could result in a state legislative chamber being under one-party control, which has not been the case since 2018 in the Hawaii Senate.
What to watch
In Northeastern Dakota’s SD-1, Republican Michael Rohl ousted then-incumbent Democrat Susan Wismer in 2020 while running behind Trump by 26 points. The district has since been redrawn to be 12 points bluer on the presidential level, and Wismer is making a comeback bid. Wismer is not running as a Democrat this time though, she’s running as an Independent. As the Democratic label grows increasingly toxic in rural areas such as SD-1, it’ll be interesting to see whether Independent candidates who caucus with Democrats could put ancestral blue voters back into their column.
Tennessee
| House Outcome Range | 73-26 GOP | 78-21 GOP |
| Senate Outcome Range | 27-6 GOP | 27-6 GOP |
| House Rating Totals | 23 DEM Favored | 76 GOP Favored |
| Senate Rating Totals | 6 DEM Favored | 27 GOP Favored |
Tennessee Republicans drew a pretty extreme gerrymander this decade for the state legislative and congressional maps. The maps are so extreme on the state legislative level that not only will there not be any competitive elections for the Tennessee Senate this year, but likely for the rest of the decade. Republicans will also be able to net between 3 to 5 seats in the State House.
What to watch
Incumbent Democrat John Mark Windle of Eastern Tennessee’s HD-41 is the last Blue Dog Democrat in the legislature, but he’s running as an Independent this year, using the same strategy as Wismer in South Dakota. JMW has been in the House since 1999, the last time a Republican ran against him was his 2018 re-election where he won by 10 points, despite his district voting for Trump by 64 points two years later. Windle’s district is nearly the same so he’s been campaigning in mostly familiar territory. Windle is facing the same opponent from 2018, Republican nominee Ed Butler. We have Windle as a slight underdog with a Tilt Republican rating.
Texas
| House Outcome Range | 100-50 GOP | 76-74 GOP |
| Senate Outcome Range | 19-12 GOP | 22-9 GOP |
| House Rating Totals | 63 DEM Favored | 87 GOP Favored |
| Senate Rating Totals | 11 DEM Favored | 20 GOP Favored |
Texas Republicans drew the second-strongest set of gerrymandered maps in the country this decade (bested only by the notorious Wisconsin gerrymanders). Democrats are currently 11 out of 150 seats away from a majority in the Texas House. In 2020, 8 of the Republican-won seats in the chamber were decided by less than 5%, and another 3 between 5% to 6.8%. Now, few of the races for either chamber will produce close election margins due to the precision behind the gerrymanders.
The State Senate has three seats we have listed as competitive this year, all of which are in the Rio Grande Valley, a majority-Hispanic area that swung hard against Democrats in 2020. Democrats are clearly favored to hold Districts 19 and 20, where they have incumbents, but they’ll struggle to hold the open 27th district which we have as a Lean Republican pickup.
What to watch
One of the near-final maps that were tossed out for the State House had an alternative plan for Collin County in the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area, creating 6 districts that voted for Donald Trump in 2020 despite only voting for Trump by 4 points. Republicans saw how this could backfire later in the leftward-trending suburban county and decided to create a Biden +10 district with the remaining 5 voting for Trump. This is District 70, an open seat we have as Tilt Republican. Despite voting for Biden by double digits, Collin is pretty Republican-friendly on the state legislative level, so we think Republicans are a slight favorite to win the seat.
Utah
| House Outcome Range | 56-19 GOP | 67-8 GOP |
| Senate Outcome Range | 21-8 GOP | 23-6 GOP |
| House Rating Totals | 12 DEM Favored | 63 GOP Favored |
| Senate Rating Totals | 6 DEM Favored | 23 GOP Favored |
There’s nothing exciting going on in the Utah Senate this year, as the only two competitive districts in our forecast this year are in our Very Likely Republican column. The Utah House will produce a Republican net gain of several seats due to moderate gerrymandering by Utah Republicans and a red wave year.
What to watch
The most interesting race is only interesting because it’s the lone competitive district outside of Salt Lake City– in Ogden, HD-10. There’s an incumbent Democrat here, Rosemary Lesser, but she was appointed to this seat after the previous incumbent elected in 2020 died. We have this as a Lean Republican pickup.
Vermont
Vermont has the unique status of being the only state in the country to have multi-member districts in both their House and Senate, so we don’t have forecasts here. Given Republican Governor Phil Scott’s expected landslide reelection and red wave environment, Republicans should net a few seats in both chambers, but the multi-member districts make it hard to say for certain.
Washington
| House Outcome Range | 67-31 GOP | 61-37 GOP |
| Senate Outcome Range | 31-18 GOP | 26-23 GOP |
| House Rating Totals | 54 DEM Favored | 44 GOP Favored |
| Senate Rating Totals | 27 DEM Favored | 22 GOP Favored |
The lowdown on Washington is similar to Oregon: a Pacific Coast state reliably blue on the federal level but is more Republican-leaning on the state legislative level. As a result, the Washington House is a Tilt Democratic chamber in our final forecast and the Washington Senate is a Likely Democratic chamber.
A strong performance by Republican US Senate nominee Tiffany Smiley, even if she narrowly loses, could very well end up flipping the Washington House. It’s hard to gauge what the margin would have to be in the US Senate race for the House to flip though. Regardless, Republicans will very likely net a few seats in the House and the Senate.
What to watch
On the coastline of Washington lies two legislative districts: one held by Republicans and one held by Democrats. The Republican-held legislative district is reliably red, voting for Trump by 14 points under the new lines. But the Democratic-held one, LD-24, will probably flip to the Republicans at some point this decade if not tomorrow given the electoral trends in this Biden +11 district. The Senate district for LD-24 isn’t up until 2024, but both of the seats for the House are up for grabs, and we have each rated as Tilt Democratic.
West Virginia
| House Outcome Range | 70-30 GOP | 95-5 GOP |
| Senate Outcome Range | 22-12 GOP | 31-3 GOP |
| House Rating Totals | 11 DEM Favored | 89 GOP Favored |
| Senate Rating Totals | 6 DEM Favored | 28 GOP Favored |
It should be no surprise to hear that West Virginia, home of US Senator Joe Manchin, is the most down-ballot-Democrat-friendly state in the nation. This is especially true on the state legislative level: throughout almost all of West Virginia, Democratic candidates for the state legislature outran Biden by double digits.
Previously, the West Virginia House had used a mixture of multi-member and single-member districts, but they will elect members to the House of Delegates only using single-member-districts for the first time. This, as well as a red-wave environment, will give West Virginia Republicans an enormous supermajority in the chamber, and likely cut down the membership of the House Democratic Caucus in half. This is the #1 chamber in our forecasts we’re least certain about however, given the sudden change in the electoral system here.
Democrats will also see their membership in the Senate decrease, it’s just a matter of how much. They failed to get a candidate to run for a seat where an incumbent is retiring, and they have two practically open seats in the panhandles. One of them has an appointed incumbent, which tends to fare poorly in elections. So Republicans should net 3 seats in the 34-district chamber. The other seats Democrats are defending are highly competitive, and are in either our Tilt or Lean column.
What to watch
One of the seats in our Tilt column is one we have Democrats favored in: SD-7 [A]. Incumbent Democrat Ron Stollings is running for re-election in this Southern West Virginia district and is the reddest seat Democrats hold in the chamber, voting for Trump by 52 points in 2020. Under the old lines, Stollings won his old Trump +59 district by 13 points in his 2018 re-election. It wouldn’t be surprising however if Stollings ended up losing, as his sister district ended up flipping in 2020, though there was not an incumbent running for re-election that year.
Wisconsin
| Assembly Outcome Range | 56-43 GOP | 79-20 GOP |
| Senate Outcome Range | 20-13 GOP | 24-9 GOP |
| Assembly Rating Totals | 34 DEM Favored | 65 GOP Favored |
| Senate Rating Totals | 10 DEM Favored | 23 GOP Favored |
As mentioned in our Texas section, the only group that does it better in the gerrymandering game than Texas Republicans are Wisconsin Republicans. After Republicans came into power in 2011, Republicans drew gerrymanders that made it impossible for Democrats to ever come close to a majority for the rest of the decade. Wisconsin Republicans got to touch up their gerrymanders this decade and draw themselves a chance to create a supermajority in the Assembly, which was not doable even under the old district lines. We don’t have Republicans favored to create a supermajority in the Assembly, but it’s going to be close, as there’s a 45% chance of a supermajority. Republicans need to win 66 seats in the Assembly for a supermajority, we have them favored in 65 of them. The 2 seats that Democrats are favored to win are only in our “Tilt Democratic” column.
The very likely incoming Senate supermajority, however, was pretty much set in stone in 2020 after Democrats only prevented a supermajority from taking place by less than a percentage point in a Western Wisconsin State Senate district. Due to an incumbent Democrat in Northern Wisconsin opting out of re-election in her Trump +10 Senate seat, Republicans are likely to win a supermajority this year since they only need one more seat. The only way Democrats can offset this loss is if they can hold onto their only incumbent in the chamber running in a Trump-won district (which we think is unlikely), and flip one of the two competitive Republican seats, which are rated as Lean Republican and Likely Republican.
What to watch
We have one race in our Tilt Republican column in the Assembly in a narrowly-Trump-won district in La Crosse County, AD-94. Incumbent Democrat Steve Doyle’s district is almost exactly the same and outran Biden in his 2020 re-election by 8 points. Republicans have ramped up spending this cycle against Doyle this cycle, given the partisanship of his district in their quest for a supermajority. This was the hardest pick in our final Assembly predictions as we eliminated our Toss-Ups, but we have this as a Tilt Republican flip.
Wyoming
| House Outcome Range | 50-12 GOP | 59-3 GOP |
| Senate Outcome Range | 29-2 GOP | 29-2 GOP |
| House Rating Totals | 5 DEM Favored | 57 GOP Favored |
| Senate Rating Totals | 2 DEM Favored | 29 GOP Favored |
Wyoming is the only state aside from Tennessee that has zero competitive elections in its State Senate. There are, however, a handful of races that are competitive in the State House. Democrats will lose at least 1 seat in the lower chamber this year, and on a good enough night for Republicans could reach up to 4.
What to watch
Two races to watch this year are HDs 22 and 17. HD22 is in Western Wyoming where an Independent incumbent who caucuses with Democrats is retiring, and another Independent candidate with his endorsement is running to keep the seat. The other seat is in Rock Springs, where the only elected Libertarian in any state legislative body, Marshall Burt, will probably lose re-election to Republican nominee Cody Wylie tomorrow. Burt managed to win this district in 2020 because he was running against an incumbent Democrat representing a Trump +50 districts and Republicans failed to recruit a candidate for the race. Burt has his own Libertarian caucus in the Wyoming House.
Thank You
Thank you for reading this article. Whether you only read about your state, the states you’re interested in, or somehow managed to read 9,800 words about state legislative elections this year, it’s been fun these last two years preparing for this article and making the forecasts behind it. The work we do at CNalysis is not a one man show– though some people think that, and I tell them that we have a staff. Almost all of us are in our early 20s, dedicated to putting in the legwork on state legislative election coverage across the country. Next year, we’re looking to go above and beyond and expand the educational resources on state legislatures to help make this critical level of our government more transparent and accessible to everyone. We’d have to redesign our website and potentially expand our staff, and that will require more revenue than our LLC currently earns. If you enjoy the work we do, and want to help us grow and make important data on state legislatures more accessible, please consider donating to our LLC. This not only will help us expand our site and the resources with it but also help pay our hard-working staff, who’ve spent countless hours this year creating forecast pages, models, maps, graphics, entering in data, and editing our articles. From our family to yours, thank you.