Hey y’all! It’s been a minute. Today, we’re launching fourteen brand new state legislative forecasts and have relaunched the forecasts that have been up over the last few months after a minor tweak in the odds-calculating methodology by Jack.
For an overview of state legislatures in general at the moment, I wrote a brief thread on Twitter. This article will go state-by-state and provide a brief overview of the lay of the land in each of them in our forecasts.
Kansas
The Kansas legislature contains two solidly Republican chambers, but the real battle, as usual, is whether Kansas Republicans keep their supermajorities. Our classic forecast is more bullish on Demorats’ chances of breaking these supermajorities, particularly in the Kansas House.
Nebraska
Nebraska Republicans have already flipped SD-15, a very conservative district just outside Omaha that a term-limited Democratic incumbent won last time. Democrats are also expected to win back SD-5, where a term-limited incumbent that was elected as a Democrat in 2020 in a deep-blue Omaha district became a Republican earlier this year, giving Republicans a supermajority in the legislature. Overall, Democrats are largely on defense this year but in a more Democratic-favoring environment may be able to have a net gain in the legislature.
Montana
The Montana redistricting commission drew the ire of Republicans in the legislature for drawing what one commission member described as a “proportional-mander,” drawing more Democratic-leaning districts to match the statewide partisan makeup of Montana and splitting up communities of interest in the process.
Our GIS team has tried their damndest to get the data we need to figure out how these districts voted on the state legislative level in 2022, but the Secretary of State office has not received the data they needed from a contractor who was supposed to provide them with the 2022 election data we’d need; it’s pretty ridiculous. As a result, I should note that I would not be surprised if we missed the mark in several seats in Montana this year due to a lack of data; this is what caused some of our notable misses in 2022. Montana’s the only state in the country that, for some reason, starts its new districts four years after the census.
Regardless, Democrats should have a net gain in seats in the legislature due to the new lines, and with Tester on the ballot this time, they’re likely in for a better night this year than in 2022.
New York
Even when factoring in what is expected to be a bluer environment in 2024 for New York than during its isolated red wave in 2022, there isn’t much change expected in the legislature this year, and either party could make gains.
Of the more notable parts of our forecast, Brooklyn Democrats left AD-49, a Biden +13 seat, uncontested after it flipped to Republicans by 4 points in 2022. AD-99, a Hudson Valley Trump +10 seat Democrats managed to narrowly flip in 2022 after the Democratic candidate flipped thousands of votes in Orthodox Jewish community Kiryas Joel, starts as Lean D in the forecast. However, as will be the case in AD-97, the rating for Orthodox Jewish seats (which usually determine the winner thanks to the community voting as a bloc) can change depending on who the rabbi(s) endorse, which usually occurs at the last minute. That information can be hard to come by, which is why we missed AD-99 in 2022.
Democrats should have no problem retaining their supermajority in the Assembly, even with minor redistricting in the chamber, and the real battle will be keeping their State Senate supermajority.
Colorado
Republicans got romped in Colorado in 2022, losing *every* competitive district in our 2022 State House forecast somehow; which has never happened in my time of predicting state legislative elections over the past seven years. They’re hoping to at least break the supermajority in the Colorado House and prevent Democrats from having a net gain in the State Senate.
Tennessee
There’s honestly nothing interesting in Tennessee as the chamber is heavily gerrymandered, creating little competition across the state. There isn’t going to be a single competitive State Senate seat in Tennessee throughout the decade, and there are only a handful of competitive House seats, but even if Democrats win them they can’t break the supermajority in the House.
Washington
Thanks to incumbent retirements and redistricting after a VRA lawsuit, Democrats are expected to have a small net gain in the Washington legislature this year, with an outside chance of a supermajority being created in both chambers.
Michigan
The Michigan House is one of the most competitive chambers this year, Democrats will need to defend it to keep their trifecta. A VRA lawsuit created a new competitive district in the Detroit metropolitan area, HD-13. There is a boatload of competitive races thanks to an independent redistricting commission drawing the lines.
Hawaii
Hawaii’s state legislative races are pretty funny and also underrated. In 2022, a red wave swept parts of western Oahu in seats that Biden won, some by double digits, but Democrats won the most conservative districts on the presidential level in the House. In the “Trumpiest” district, HD-44 (Trump +1), Democrats won the open seat by 25 points, making it our biggest miss of the 2022 midterms as we had Republicans favored to flip it. This year, Republicans left it uncontested. Democrats also left HD-18, a Biden +35 seat, uncontested once again after doing so in 2022.
Democrats will retain their supermajorities in both chambers, of course, but election nerds like myself will be most interested in the unique ticket-splitting that Oahu provides.
Minnesota
Democrats start out as moderate favorites to hold their majority in the Minnesota House this year, with many competitive seats (especially Toss-Ups in the Twin Cities area) that will be imperative to determining control of the chamber, but Democrats overall being favored in a majority of districts, at least slightly.
Something worth watching will be whether Republicans can win every Iron Range State House seat, as Trump-won HD-7B is now open and is expected to flip, which is the only D-held seat in the Iron Range.
Wyoming
The general elections for the Wyoming legislature, of course, are quite boring in a Safe Republican state, but watch out for the primary results here this Summer as the Freedom Caucus may be able to take over the Wyoming House after this cycle.
Republicans are mostly on defense this year, and Democrats may be able to pick up a few seats in the House, and one in the Senate.
Alaska
I’m proud that in 2020 and 2022 I managed to get 39/40 seats right in the Alaska House. This year I’ll be happy if I can keep that record, or perhaps even better, have a clean sweep and predict every district successfully. Alaska has the most unique politics in the country, and as a result is one of our more unique forecasts. Some State Senate seats labeled as “Uncontested R” are rated differently in the odds-calculating process as I have to essentially try and quantify which Republican may come out on top in November between grand coalition Republican incumbents and standard Republicans who want a Republican-only majority.
In the House, some independents are counted as Democrats and others as Republicans, as is the case in the Republican-led coalition. Chamber rating doesn’t quite mean much in our forecasts as a result; the majority in each chamber in Alaska will be determined way after election day when caucuses form. Still, we count incumbents by who they currently caucus with. If something happened like the Bush caucus joining the Democrats, that doesn’t matter; it happens after the election.
Republicans overall are favored to hold their majority in the Alaska House, especially with the retirement of an independent incumbent that’s been able to win a double-digit-Trump Ketchikan seat. The State Senate is harder to determine who is favored until we see the results of the primary in August, which uses top-four ranked-choice voting.
Massachusetts
As is usually the case in Massachusetts, Democrats left legions of Biden-won districts uncontested in the legislature: a whopping twelve seats won by Biden between the State House and State Senate will not feature a Democratic candidate, including one Biden +27 State Senate seat that hasn’t had a Democratic candidate in twenty years (!!!), First Essex and Middlesex.
Democrats are on the defense in the Senate as they are trying to defend the open Third Bristol and Plymouth seat that narrowly voted for Biden in 2020 and has been trending rightward. In the House, either party may be able to make gains. Of course, both chambers will have a Democratic supermajority.
Vermont
This is my first time creating a forecast for the Vermont legislature, with both chambers having multi-member districts. In the House, seats elect either 1 or 2 members, and in the Senate between 1 and 3. There is a major caveat to our forecast that will cause it to have to be relaunched in August: the independent filing deadline has yet to pass, which is on August 8th. Additionally, nominations for the progressive party (which are counted as Democrats as part of the majority, but labeled otherwise) will also be determined by then.
Republicans have three “Uncontested” flips that doesn’t feature a Democratic candidate, but these seats will most likely see an Independent candidate aligned with the Democrats file to keep the seat for their party.
Democrats should have no problem holding their supermajority in the State House, but their State Senate supermajority is at jeopardy; they are, however, slight favorites to keep it.